The Real Consequences of Macroprudential FX Regulations
Draft Coming Soon
Dissertation Committee: Robert Engle (Co-chair), Philipp Schnabl (Co-chair), Ralph Koijen, Alexi Savov and Joel Hasbrouck
I examine the real effects of macroprudential foreign exchange (FX) regulations designed to reduce the risk taking by financial intermediaries. I exploit a natural experiment in South Korea at the bank level that can be traced through firms. The regulation limits banks’ ratio of FX derivatives position to capital. By using cross-bank variation in the tightness of regulation, I show that the regulation causes a sudden reduction in the supply of FX derivatives. Controlling for hedging demand, I find that exporting firms reduce hedging with the constrained banks by 47%, relative to that with the unconstrained banks. I further show that the reduction in the banks’ supply of hedging instruments results in a substantial decline in firm exports. For one-standard-deviation increase in firm’s exposure to the regulation shock transmitted by banks, export falls by 17.1% for high-hedge firms and rises by 5.7% for low-hedge firms, resulting in the differential effect of 22.8%. Collectively, my results provide a novel implication that macroprudential FX regulations aiming to manage the risk taking of financial intermediaries can affect the real side of the economy.
Presented at: Federal Reserve Board (Pre-Job Market Conference), SoFiE Seminar ( Video), NYU Stern
Understanding the Onshore versus Offshore Forward Rate Basis: The Role of FX Position Limits and Margin Constraints
Poster (presented at AFA) | Draft available on request
During the financial crisis of 2007–2009, the difference between the exchange rate for locally traded (onshore) forward contracts and that of contracts with the same maturity traded outside the jurisdiction of countries (offshore) increased significantly, though the magnitudes varied across currencies. With a model in which financial intermediaries face foreign exchange net position limits and margin requirements, this paper explains the time-series and cross-sectional variation in those price gaps (bases). Within the time-series variation, the magnitude of the bases increases with the shadow cost of the position limit, identified by the interest rate spread between onshore and offshore funding rates. In the cross-sectional variation, the magnitude of bases increases with country-specific position limits and the shadow cost of position limit constraints. I find empirical evidence consistent with the predictions of my model, particularly in the countries with tight position limits.
Presented at: Columbia GSB Finance Ph.D. Seminar, NYU Stern
Climate Stress Testing (with Robert Engle)
Draft coming soon
Climate change could lead to a systemic risk to the financial sector in the process of an economy transitioning to less carbon-intensive environment. We develop a stress testing procedure to test the resilience of financial institutions to climate-related risks. The procedure involves three steps. The first step is to measure the climate risk factor by using stranded asset portfolio returns. The second step is to estimate time-varying climate beta of financial institutions using Dynamic Conditional Beta (DCB) model. The third step is to compute the systemic climate risk (CRISK), the capital shortfall of financial institutions in a climate stress scenario. This step is based on the same methodology as SRISK, but the climate factor is added as the second factor. We use this procedure to study large banks in the U.S. and the U.K. in the recent collapse in fossil-fuel prices.
Estimating SRISK for Emerging Markets (with Robert Engle and Philipp Schnabl)
The expected capital shortfall of a financial entity conditional on a prolonged market decline, SRISK measure of Brownlees and Engle (2016), is a useful monitor of financial fragility. The key challenge in applying SRISK is that it requires data on the market value of firm equity. However, many of the major financial institutions in Latin America and China are not publicly listed and therefore do not have market data on firm equity. To get a full picture of financial fragility, it is crucial to estimate SRISK for unlisted firms as well. To this end, we estimate SRISK for unlisted Latin American and Chinese financial institutions by examining the relation between accounting data and market data for listed banks and then applying the same relation to unlisted firms.
Presented (by coauthor) at: 53rd Colombian Banking Summit, Volatility Institute at NYU Shanghai Conference
The Cross-section of Stock Price Sensitivity to Macroeconomic News Announcements over the Business Cycle
This paper studies the link between firm characteristics and sensitivities of stock prices to macroeconomic news announcement (MNA) surprises over the business cycle. I find that the stocks with high market beta are more sensitive to MNA surprises, while the relationships between the sensitivity and other characteristics (size, book-to-market ratio, profitability, investment, and momentum) are muted. Furthermore, the relationship between market betas and the sensitivities varies over the business cycle. The sensitivities tend to align with market betas in bad times but not in good times.
Presented at: NYU Stern